Ethiopia Deploys 2,500 Troops Under New AU Mission to Fight Al-Shabaab.

Ethiopian National Defence Forces (ENDF) honor soldiers in a medal parade at Mahas Forward Operating Base, Beledweyne, Somalia, on August 21, 2024.

Counter-Terrorism

1. Deployment Authorization & Mission Overview

The African Union (AU) and the Federal Government of Somalia (FGS) have formally authorized the deployment of 2,500 Ethiopian troops to the African Union Support Mission in Somalia (AUSSOM), reinforcing counterterrorism efforts against Al-Shabaab, an al-Qaeda-affiliated militant group.

• Mission Mandate: Established under UN Security Council Resolution [XXXX] (2023), AUSSOM operates until December 2028, with a focus on supporting Somali security forces in stabilizing areas reclaimed from Al-Shabaab.

• Troop Cap: The mission is authorized for up to 12,626 personnel, a reduction from the previous ATMIS deployment, reflecting Somalia’s push for greater oversight of foreign military operations.

  
  

2. Troop Contributions & Operational Structure

The Somalia Operations Coordination Committee (SOCC) confirmed the following force composition:

• Uganda: 4,500 troops (largest contingent)

• Ethiopia: 2,500 troops

• Egypt: ~1,100 troops (with potential expansion under a broader defense pact)

• Djibouti & Kenya: 1,520 and 1,410 troops, respectively

• Police Support: Additional hundreds of officers from Egypt, Nigeria, and Sierra Leone will assist in urban stabilization (Mogadishu, Jowhar, Baidoa).

  
  

  Ankara Declaration, securing Ethiopia’s participation under revised terms, including a Status of Forces Agreement (SOFA) to address Somali sovereignty concerns.

• Egypt’s Strategic Posture: Cairo’s deployment aligns with its broader Horn of Africa security strategy, counterbalancing Ethiopia’s regional influence amid ongoing disputes over the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD).

  
  

4. Counterterrorism Operations & Al-Shabaab Threat

• Joint Offensives: AUSSOM and Somali forces are conducting clearance operations in Al-Shabaab strongholds, particularly in southern and central Somalia.

• Recent Attacks: The group remains a persistent threat, exemplified by a March 2024 assault on a convoy escorting President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud.

• International Airstrikes: U.S., Turkish, and Ethiopian forces have intensified kinetic strikes to degrade militant capabilities.

  
  

5. Funding & Sustainability Challenges

• Financial Model: AUSSOM relies on a hybrid funding structure—75% UN-assessed contributions, supplemented by AU and bilateral partners (EU, Turkey, China).

• U.S. Concerns: Washington has raised sustainability issues, urging strict adherence to budget caps.

  
  

6. Somali-Led Security Transition

The FGS emphasizes a "Somali-owned" security framework, aiming to reduce long-term dependence on foreign forces. President Mohamud’s administration is prioritizing institutional capacity-building to enable eventual full Somali security control.

7. Assessment & Outlook

While AUSSOM marks a strategic shift toward leaner, more coordinated counterterrorism operations, challenges persist:

• Al-Shabaab’s resilience necessitates sustained military pressure.

• Regional rivalries (Ethiopia vs. Egypt) could complicate mission cohesion.

• Funding gaps risk operational delays.

Recommendation: Close monitoring of force interoperability, donor commitments, and political stability will be critical to AUSSOM’s success.